BlogSpot - May 5th, 2014
- May 5, 2014
- 2 min read
Euroskepticism and the upcoming Elections…
The European Parliament elections are in the spotlight (first Presidential European debate and other major events reported on RealTime Brussels). According to the EU Observer, the debate focused on the European economy, foreign policy and rising euroskeptiscim.Recent studies stress the benefits that resulted from the EMU. For Nauro Campos, member states—Greece excluded—gained about 12 percent in per capita GDP. Zsolt Darvas at Bruegel finds evidence of economic convergence within the EMU, but highlights two pessimistic results: (i) countries having banking troubles such as Slovenia and Cyprus are exceptions, (ii) and regional difference within countries have widened due to an efficient concentration of economic activities. So what is driving the Euroskeptics? A number of shortcomings are at play:Jean Pisani-Ferry at Project Syndicate explains euroskepticism by the fragmentation of European economies. Ferrer and Katarivas at CEPS focus on the key role played by the EU budget from both an economic and political point of view—structural funds were supposed to promote infrastructure but have been suboptimal. The cohesion policy/single market approach provided mixed results, according to Majorie Jouen. Henrik Enderlein’s report at Notre Europe Jacques Delors Institut compares the Delors Report proposals 25 years ago, the Maastricht criteria and the current debate. He argues that monetary union cannot function as a standalone element but requires (i) some political integration, (ii) a EU steering mechanism on macroeconomic and budgetary matters, (iii) emphasis in economic policy making on convergence in EMU. Notre Europe also stresses issues related to the rigidity of the Stability and Growth Pact.Transparency International points to the weak trust in EU institutions to explain euroskepticism, as does Real Time Brussels and a 2014 Eurobarometer survey that showed that 70 percent of Europeans think corruption exists in the EU institutions.Will the Euroskeptics change Europe after the elections? Probably not much… Open Europe estimates that anti-EU parties could win as much as 30.9% of the vote in May (versus 24.9% in 2009), on the back of poor economic performance (economic factors play a critical role in determining political parties’ support for European integration as demonstrated by Patricia Esteve-Gonzalez and Bernd Theilen). The net effect of the vote could however make the European Parliament more integrationist by crowding out “critical reformers”. Duncan McDonnell assesses that a ‘Euroskeptic alliance’ would have a fairly limited impact due to internal differences. Inez von Weitershausen writes that Euroskeptics forced pro-EU politicians to stand more firmly on the other side of the debate. Javier Solana identifies “Erasmusization” Europe’s best chance for a future freedom and prosperity while facing the increasing number of eurosceptics.
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